Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.816912 0.950472 1.098504 1.274685 1.478620 1.707235 1.982972
2025-02-02 0.633165 0.821468 1.053171 1.358982 1.751845 2.239528 2.891069
2025-02-09 0.520694 0.729695 1.006569 1.399638 1.942968 2.667374 3.706935
2025-02-16 0.438677 0.654723 0.958687 1.416619 2.088414 3.037494 4.480667
2025-02-23 0.374203 0.589872 0.909556 1.416575 2.199619 3.362497 5.221200
2025-03-02 0.321421 0.532171 0.859533 1.403215 2.282406 3.647616 5.929042
2025-03-09 0.281974 0.488302 0.822792 1.402172 2.379192 3.959127 6.708393
2025-03-16 0.240790 0.434878 0.762357 1.352314 2.386830 4.124165 7.263324
2025-03-23 0.229637 0.431009 0.783434 1.441547 2.637509 4.716386 8.603785
2025-03-30 0.200587 0.390769 0.735581 1.402207 2.656072 4.909164 9.263835
2025-04-06 0.174993 0.353240 0.687487 1.355394 2.653506 5.060867 9.861994
2025-04-13 0.153786 0.321161 0.645290 1.313743 2.654149 5.215796 10.479542
2025-04-20 0.142216 0.307233 0.637209 1.339435 2.792000 5.652123 11.706078
2025-04-27 0.138020 0.308069 0.658776 1.428032 3.067511 6.389596 13.624452
2025-05-04 0.129708 0.298886 0.658457 1.470724 3.252918 6.966238 15.279837
2025-05-11 0.120116 0.285482 0.647368 1.488553 3.386912 7.450437 16.794761
2025-05-18 0.110193 0.269884 0.629393 1.488508 3.480926 7.858555 18.188941
2025-05-25 0.100362 0.253112 0.606619 1.474479 3.541295 8.199059 19.470218
2025-06-01 0.092461 0.239894 0.590332 1.473385 3.630986 8.613884 20.967732
2025-06-08 0.082264 0.219538 0.554599 1.421034 3.592522 8.730621 21.778725
2025-06-15 0.081421 0.222994 0.577076 1.514727 3.920168 9.739893 24.847818
2025-06-22 0.073369 0.206392 0.547559 1.473421 3.906381 9.929004 25.921590
2025-06-29 0.065788 0.189999 0.516534 1.424267 3.866487 10.049255 26.835305